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Recession

English

Business cycle

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle, or "a period of reduced economic activity." The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." A sustained recession may become a depression.

Some business & investment glossaries add to the general definition a rule of thumb that recessions are often indicated by two consecutive quarters of negative growth (or contraction) of gross domestic product (GDP). Newspapers often quote this rule of thumb, however the measure fails to register several official (NBER defined) US recessions.

Attributes of recessions

A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and can include declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions are the result of falling demand and may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or sharply rising prices (inflation) or a combination of rising prices and stagnant economic growth (stagflation). A severe or prolonged recession is referred to as an economic depression. Although the distinction between a recession and a depression is not clearly defined, it is often said that a decline in GDP of more than 10% constitutes a depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy (essentially, a severe depression, or hyperinflation, depending on the circumstances) is called economic collapse.

Causes of recessions

Currency crises
Inflation
National debt
Speculation
War

Effects of recessions

Bankruptcies
Banks lend less money
Deflation
Foreclosures
Reduced sales
Stock market crash
Unemployment

References

  1. [1]Merriam-Webster
  2. [2]Encarta
  3. National Bureau of Economic Research: Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
  4. [3]Bloomberg
  5. [ http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/recession.html]Business Dictionary
  6. The risk of redefining recession
  7. "Recession? Depression? What's the difference between a recession and a depression?".
  8. A Estrella, FS Mishkin. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators". MIT Press.
  9. Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run
  10. Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve By Michael Hudson
  11. Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting
  12. Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds
  13. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession January 21, 2008
  14. If you are fearing a recession, don't panic! Or panic first! - Philadelphia Business Journal:
  15. Historical Changes of the Target Federal Funds and Discount Rates
  16. rate drop chart
  17. rate rise chart
  18. rate drop chart1
  19. rate drop chart2
  20. rate rise chart
  21. rate drop chart1
  22. rate drop chart2
  23. rate rise chart
  24. rate drop chart
  25. Stocks for the Long Run, J. Siegel, 2002
  26. Ramón Adalid, Carsten Detken. Excessive Liquidity and Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles. European Central Bank.
  27. Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002). Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. ISBN 9780071370486
  28. Housing Has A Strong Correlation To Stocks Chris Ciovacco, September 19, 2006
  29. Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions by Allan Sloan, December 11, 2007
  30. Recession? Where to put your money now. Shawn Tully, February 6 2008
  31. crossover
  32. Rethinking Recession-Proof Stocks Joshua Lipton 01.28.08
  33. Recession Stock PicksDouglas Cohen, January 18, 2008
  34. Economy puts Republicans at risk 29 January 2008
  35. The Bush Recession Prepared by: Democrat staff, Senate Budget Committee,July 31, 2003
  36. Ready for a Real Downer Monday, Nov. 23, 1981 By GEORGE J. CHURCH
  37. The Recession that Almost Was. Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, April 5, 2002
  38. Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. `Damage' Spreads
  39. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
  40. http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls
  41. The Financial Crisis and Economic Outlook—Lessons for Securing the Benefits of Financial Deepening
  42. A recession of global dimensions?January 22 2008
  43. indicating 20 percent chance of global recession in 2008 - UBS 08.24.07
  44. IMF chief warns of worldwide impact of American slowdown February 12, 2008
  45. Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
  46. Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months
  47. Peoples, Steve (29 April 2008). "Analysts say R.I. economy in recession", Providence Journal. Retrieved on 30 April 2008. 
  48. Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  49. Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
  50. Why it's worse than you think, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.
  51. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2008

Links

This guide is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia.

Video: Economy Shrinks in 3Q, Signaling Recession

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