Stock market decline as a predictor for the recession


A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle, or "a period of reduced economic activity." The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." A sustained recession may become a depression.

A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market. Crashes are driven by panic as much as by underlying economic factors. They often follow speculative stock market bubbles.

The 2008 Russian financial crisis is an ongoing crisis on Russian markets, as nervousness over the global banking crisis has been compounded by political fears after the war with Georgia, as well as renewed concern about state intervention in corporations of strategic interests. Russia's economy is also heavily dependent on energy prices, especially oil which has lost more than a third of its value since its record peak of USD 147 on July 11, 2008.
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